credit reports
Bring on the bad credit!
Thursday, February 07, 2008
I wish the bears understood how important subprime lending is to the thesis about the market going higher. But then again, if they did, they would be forced to cover everything.
For as long as I have been at this game, it has taken a crisis for the Federal Reserve to move. The Fed is always reluctant to move because it needs the crisis as a cover so it doesn't look like it's soft on inflation. Maybe you think we have good growth in this country; I think we just have easy retail comparisons because of nat gas and gasoline bills being down but that in reality we're in a slump that the international portions of our great businesses are saving.
That's not enough for the Fed to cut on. That's not obvious enough.
Ah, but if all of the subprime lenders pull out of that market and if Merrill(MER - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Bear(BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Lehman(LEH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) -- big subprime lenders via acquisition -- start saying "it's a crisis" and New Century(NEW - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) goes belly-up or Accredited Home(LEND - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) takes down a big part of its book value or Countrywide(CFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) leaves the business -- then we'll have a crisis that can justify not one but maybe three or four cuts.
When you have the housing industry building a fraction of the homes it was building and credit hard to come by, you are giving Benanke the crisis cover he needs.
Some of my friends who read RealMoney are freaking out about the negative columns that are being written about how dangerous this subprime crisis is. I'm taking those columns very seriously, which is why I am growing more bullish by the day. The fact that the Fed chairman bought into it today in front of the House of Representatives shows me that the Congressional drumbeat -- remember, prime is Republican, subprime is Democrat -- could be building and building fast.
Posted by Prestonmortgage at 22:11:41